Sochi deal blown by the winds of the Astana alliance

فريق التحرير22 نوفمبر 2018آخر تحديث : منذ سنتين
5ac4a3a31e0000fb077b0882 - حرية برس Horrya press

Ahmad Zakariya – Horrya Press

According to local sources, Assad’s forces and their support for Iran continue its violations and attempts to advance on several fronts, including the front of the “Hama countryside” Within the agreement.
“The fourth reduction zone is today a major challenge that determines the success or failure to deal with the fate of the political solution in Syria,” said Omran Center for Strategic Studies in a study released Nov. 12. “This will require local and international efforts to support the implementation of The agreement as a first stage, and then ensure the stability of the region through the process of political restructuring, military and administrative, which requires the removal of the Syrian file from the list of files with the dispute with Turkey, and deal with the region as the last areas of the Syrian revolution
The study concluded in some points that “the specter of the possibility of a military campaign against Idlib still exists, especially in light of the positions of the hardline factions in the region of the agreement, and the Russian insistence on the restoration of Idlib and consider it a temporary agreement, where Moscow bet on the obstacles and problems suffered by Idlib , Which is difficult for Turkey alone to carry out within the time frame prescribed for the implementation of the agreement.
In light of these developments, the finger indicates that the main instigator of violating the Idlib agreement is Iran, while observers wonder about the fate of the Idleb agreement in light of the continuation of these violations? What is the main reason behind Iran’s attempts to break the agreement? What is Moscow’s position on these violations? What is the position of the Turks about Iran’s recent statements that it intends to send peacekeepers to the region at the request of the regime?

The agreement threatens Iran and Assad

The writer and political analyst and specialist on the Turkish issue, “Taha Odehoglu” said: “Iran and its militias in Syria, working from the first moment to conclude the agreement Sochi frustration by all means available to them, taking advantage of the lack of mechanisms for monitoring and accountability for those who violate the agreement, The agreement to stop the fighting is a first step in ending the existence of the Bashar al-Assad regime, because stability means the beginning of a political solution, which is important but will not keep the regime. The success of the agreement also means removing Iran from the Syrian equation and starting to implement American demands to end the Iranian presence from Syrian territory , And his That is why chaos and instability on the ground are in Iran’s interest and survival in Syria.
He added: “The return of Oglu” in his speech to the freedom of Press: Russia is originally not fully satisfied with the Sochi agreement, but as we all know that this agreement remains the best solution for them in order to maintain its relationship with Ankara, and the failure of Turkey out of control at a time when the Turkish relations The Russians are not in their interest to blow up the agreement, which will put it under intense international pressure, which is indispensable under the Russian-European tension. On the contrary, it is currently seeking to win the international community and confirm that this agreement is the prelude to a real political solution in Syria.

Fears of the collapse of the agreement

With regard to the fate of the Idlib agreement in light of the continued violations of the Assad regime and its supporters, “Odeh Oglu” that, in light of the bombing and continuous attacks by the Syrian regime and the Iranian militias against the opposition factions in recent days, it can be said that the Sochi deal is threatened to collapse, “We have noticed during the last period active Turkish movements in all directions to ensure that the agreement does not collapse, especially as this would be a setback for all efforts exerted to strengthen its presence in Idlib and prevent the waves of displacement to its territory.
He expressed his opinion on recent Iranian statements regarding the dispatch of peacekeepers to the Idlib region. “The return of Oglu”: In spite of the great development in Turkish-Iranian relations, especially in the economic arena during the recent period, this does not mean that Ankara will turn a blind eye to any Iran’s new moves in Syria in the future, but has repeatedly stressed through senior officials the need for the withdrawal of the terrorist organizations belonging to Iran in Syria, a clear message of Turkish rejection of the Iranian presence in Syria.

Russian – Turkish differences

With regard to the position of Moscow from violations of the regime forces, especially Iran, he saw a researcher in international relations specialist in Turkish and Russian affairs, Dr. “Basil Al-Hajj Jassim,” that there are differences abound day after day between Moscow and Tehran in the Syrian arena,
Because of the view of each of them to the future of Syria, and the closer the battles to completion and approached the settlement of what appears most of these disparities to the surface, but all this did not rise to the level of disagreement to this day.
“It is difficult to believe that Tehran can move to neighboring regions without Turkey’s coordination and satisfaction,” Jassim told journalists in a statement. “Today there is a big test for the two countries, the battle of East Euphrates, so any step of this kind will inevitably be coordinated.
* Translate by: Huda Bilal
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